Probability for starting hands in Texas Hold ‘em

The probability of being dealt various starting hands can be explicitly calculated. In Texas Hold ‘em, a player is dealt two down (or hole) cards. The first card can be any one of 52 playing cards in the deck and the second card can be any one of the 51 remaining cards. This gives 52 × 51 ÷ 2 = 1,326 possible starting hand combinations. (Since the order of the cards is not significant, the 2,652 combinations are divided by the 2 ways of ordering two cards.) Alternately, the number of possible starting hands is represented as the binomial coefficient

(52/2) = 1,326

which is the number of possible combinations of choosing 2 cards from a deck of 52 playing cards.

The 1,326 starting hands can be reduced for purposes of determining the probability of starting hands for Hold ‘em—since suits have no relative value in poker, many of these hands are identical in value before the flop. The only factors determining the strength of a starting hand are the ranks of the cards and whether the cards share the same suit. Of the 1,326 combinations, there are 169 distinct starting hands grouped into three shapes: 13 pocket pairs (paired hole cards), 13 × 12 ÷ 2 = 78 suited hands and 78 unsuited hands; 13 + 78 + 78 = 169. The relative probability of being dealt a hand of each given shape is different. The following shows the probabilities and odds of being dealt each type of starting hand.

3 3 × 6 = 78 YahooMyWeb8 Pownce8 × 4 = 312 YahooMyWeb8 Pownce8 × 12 = 936
Hand shape Number
of hands
Permutations
for each hand
Combinations
Pocket pair (4/2) = 6
Suited cards (4/1) = 4
Unsuited cards (4/1)(3/1) = 12
Ma.gnolia20 : 1/1326 ~ 0.0030231 : 112/1326 ~ 0.235310 : 1
Hand shape Dealt specific hand Dealt any hand
Probability Odds Probability Odds
Pocket pair /1326 ~ 0.00453 8/1326 ~ 0.0588 16 : 1
Suited cards
3.25 : 1
Unsuited cards 2/1326 ~ 0.00905 36/1326 ~ 0.7059 0.417 : 1

Here are the probabilities and odds of being dealt various other types of starting hands.

  • .00302
  • .00453
  • .0121
  • .0121
  • .0136
  • .0181
  • .0226
  • .0302
  • .0392
  • .0483
  • .0498
  • .0905
  • .143
  • .157
  • .208
  • .534
  • Hand Probability Odds
    AKs (or any specific suited cards) 331 : 1
    AA (or any specific pair) 220 : 1
    AKs, KQs, QJs, or JTs 81.9 : 1
    AK (or any specific non-pair) 81.9 : 1
    AA, KK, or QQ 72.7 : 1
    Suited cards, J or better 54.3 : 1
    AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or TT 43.2 : 1
    Suited cards, T or better 32.2 : 1
    Suited connectors 24.5 : 1
    Connected cards, T or better 19.7 : 1
    Any 2 cards with rank at least Q 19.1 : 1
    Any 2 cards with rank at least J 10.1 : 1
    Any 2 cards with rank at least T 5.98 : 1
    Connected cards (cards of consecutive rank) 5.38 : 1
    Any 2 cards with rank at least 9 3.81 : 1
    Not connected nor suited, at least one 2-9 0.873 : 1

    This guide is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia.

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